Agriculture Pulse · Issue 1
Agriculture Pulse — Issue 1
Sent 25 October 2026
The main harvest is in and food prices fell 1.55% in September, so store your crop well, do not rush to sell at harvest-low prices, and get ready for hotter, drier weeks ahead.
Season and weather watch
The rains are ending and the dry season is starting. On 23 October NiMet warned of hotter days, dust and possible water shortages for homes, farms and livestock (NiMet via TVC News, 23 Oct 2026).
What to do now (NiMet's advice):
Crops: work in the cooler hours, mulch to keep soil moisture, and check how much water your crops need.
Livestock: give enough drinking water, shade and air.
Fish ponds: watch water temperature and oxygen, keep aeration going, and act early to prevent heat stress and fish deaths.
By zone. NiMet's 2026 season forecast (10 Feb 2026) said how this year's rains would end in each area; FEWS NET adds what has happened since (Key Message Update, Sept 2026).
Zone | What to expect |
|---|---|
North West | Kaduna was forecast a longer season and late end; dry spells hit parts of Kebbi and Sokoto, so harvests there are expected below average. |
North East | Borno and Yobe were forecast a shorter season; FEWS NET reports moderate rainfall shortfalls in the north-east linked to El Niño (6 Oct 2026). |
North Central | Benue and Nasarawa were forecast a late end of rains; Kogi and Niger an early end; dry spells affected parts of Plateau. |
South West | Lagos and Oyo were forecast a longer season; parts of Osun and Ondo an earlier end. |
South East | Anambra, Enugu and Ebonyi were forecast a longer season and late end; parts of Imo an earlier end. |
South South | Cross River was forecast a late end of rains; parts of Rivers and Akwa Ibom an earlier end. |
Why the north and south differ this year. NiMet's August update confirmed a strong El Niño in 2026. For August to October it forecast wetter-than-normal conditions in Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara, Katsina, Kano, Yobe, Borno, Bauchi and Jigawa. It forecast drier-than-normal conditions in Oyo, Ogun, Lagos, Osun, Ekiti, Edo and Delta, with possible effects in Kogi and parts of Benue (NiMet, Seasonal Climate Prediction Update, 13 Aug 2026). Its advice still holds as the season ends: apply fertiliser only after effective rain, not during dry spells; watch for pests and diseases; and keep drainage channels clear where floods are likely.
These are regional outlooks, not local guarantees. Check your own state and LGA on NiMet's seasonal rainfall prediction portal before planting dry-season crops.
Market watch
Food prices fell in September as the harvest came in. Average food prices dropped 1.55% from August, though they were still 19.59% higher than a year earlier (NBS September 2026 CPI, released 15 Oct 2026). Local maize, sorghum and millet prices were mostly falling or steady, while rice and cowpea stayed high (FEWS NET Price Watch, 30 Sept 2026). Petrol sold at ₦1,400 to ₦1,500 a litre in September, which keeps transport costs up (FEWS NET, Sept 2026).
Lagos market prices, September 2026. Staples got cheaper at Mushin, Daleko, Mile 12 and Oyingbo markets (Nairametrics market survey, 2 Oct 2026). These are Lagos prices, not national averages.
Item | September price | August price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
Maize, white and yellow, 50 kg bag | ₦40,000 | ₦50,000 | down 20% |
Yellow garri, 50 kg | ₦18,000 | ₦21,000 | down 14.3% |
White garri, 50 kg | ₦19,500 | ₦22,000 | down 11.4% |
Royal Stallion short-grain rice, bag (size not stated) | ₦49,000 | down 7.6% | |
Brown beans, 50 kg | ₦105,000 | down 4.6% |
Not everything fell: a big bag of egusi rose 29.7% to ₦480,000, and a big basket of oval tomatoes rose 14.3% to ₦80,000 (Nairametrics, 2 Oct 2026).
By zone: how fast food prices rose over the past year (NBS state figures for September 2026, reported 16 Oct 2026). This shows how quickly prices are rising, not which state is cheapest.
Zone | Food price rise, Sept 2025 to Sept 2026 |
|---|---|
South West | Fastest in the country: Lagos 34.4%, Ondo 31.5%, Osun 25.2%, Oyo 24.5%, Ogun 24.2% |
South East | Imo 33.8%, Ebonyi 25.7% |
South South | Delta 30.6%, Rivers 26.8%; Bayelsa much slower at 9.3% |
North Central | Benue 27.3%; Nasarawa 5.3% and Kogi 8.6% much slower |
North East | Slowest in the country: Taraba -7.5%, Yobe -0.4%, Borno 2.2%, Bauchi 5.3%. In Adamawa, prices fell 13.84% in one month (NBS via Legit, Oct 2026) |
North West | Kebbi 5.4%, Sokoto 6.1%, Jigawa 8.1%. In Kano, prices fell 11.01% in one month |
Prices are information, not advice; they vary by market, quality and bag size. The national NBS Selected Food Prices Watch for September was not yet published when checked on 24 October 2026 (latest available: May 2026), so national per-bag prices will follow in a later issue.
Opportunity board
Opportunity | Who it is for | How to take part | Deadline |
|---|---|---|---|
Renewed Hope Smallholder Support and Value-Chain Fund 2026/2027, from the Bank of Agriculture. Credit, inputs, extension and guaranteed off-take for smallholders, delivered through aggregators (BOA page) | Registered farmer aggregation companies and off-takers with out-grower networks; turnover of at least ₦500 million and 3 years' experience. Not individual farmers: farmers should ask their cooperative or aggregator | Register and submit an expression of interest at aggregator.bankofagriculture.com/register | 2 November 2026, as reported on 13 Oct 2026; BOA's own page gives no date |
NAGS-AP farmer enrolment 2026 (federal Agro-Pocket scheme for inputs) | Farmers of maize, rice, wheat, sorghum, millet, soybean, cassava, cowpea, groundnut or yam, in any state | Fill in the online form; you need a NIN, BVN, driver's licence or voter's card, and your farm's state, LGA and ward | None stated on the form |
The scheme says dry-season wheat output rose from about 120,000 to about 420,000 tonnes a year (Nairametrics, 4 Oct 2026). Details for the 2026/2027 dry season (hectares, states, input dates) have not been published yet.
On AgricTrail: list your cooperative's or your organisation's programme in the Ecosystem directory so farmers can find it.
Build update
Three changes went live on AgricTrail this fortnight, labelled as on our platform status list:
What | Status | What it means for you |
|---|---|---|
Join a registered cooperative | Live | Farmers can now ask to join a cooperative that AgricTrail has verified; its officers accept or decline. If accepted, you leave the digital cooperative you were placed in. |
First time signing in | Live | Farmers registered by their cooperative or an agent set their own password with an SMS code: tap "First time signing in? Set your password" on the sign-in page. |
Agriculture Pulse | Live | This briefing. Every issue is approved by a person before it is sent. |
On AgricTrail: create your A-ID and record this season's harvest in FarmMate.
Field note
After 25 years in farming, one lesson I have learnt is that protecting what you produce is just as important as growing it. Store harvested grain in clean, dry, well-ventilated conditions, keep it off the floor, and check regularly for moisture and pests. As temperatures rise, livestock and fish farmers should also pay close attention to water quality, aeration and heat stress: small preventive steps can save a season's hard work.
— Ganiu Okeowo, Founder, AgricTrail
Question of the issue
What price did you get or pay for a 100 kg bag of maize this week, and in which state?
Reply to this email or send it on WhatsApp to +234 704 633 3500. We will share the answers as totals in the next issue, only if at least 10 people reply.
Sources
NiMet: 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (10 Feb 2026)
NiMet: Seasonal Climate Prediction Update, August 2026 (13 Aug 2026)
TVC News: NiMet dry-season warning (23 Oct 2026)
Technext: NBS September 2026 CPI (NBS release 15 Oct 2026)
Legit.ng: states with slowest food price increases, Sept 2026
FEWS NET: Price Watch, Sept 2026 (30 Sept 2026)
FEWS NET: 2026-2027 El Niño food security impacts (6 Oct 2026)
Nairametrics: wheat output under NAGS-AP (4 Oct 2026)
Nairametrics: Lagos food prices, September 2026 (2 Oct 2026)
Nigeria Startup Act: BOA programme deadline (13 Oct 2026)
This issue was drafted with AI help from the public sources named in it and reviewed and approved by a person at AgricTrail before it was sent. Prices are information, not advice.
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